By ERIC JUMA
Kenyans have been urged to take weather advisories from the Kenya Meteorological Department seriously as the country prepares for the possibility of El Niño rains expected later this year.
Charles Muga, the Deputy Director in charge of Administration at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said the agency is closely monitoring weather patterns and will issue forecasts in August to help the public and government agencies prepare for the anticipated rains.
“We have experienced the devastating effects of torrential rainfall in the past, and we do not want to be caught off guard again. That is why we are keen to keep Kenyans informed. The forecast will be released in August, and we urge everyone to plan accordingly,” Muga said.
Speaking during a stakeholders’ engagement forum, Muga said El Niño is associated with above-normal rainfall in many parts of the country, with Western Kenya and the Nyanza region expected to receive heavy rainfall that could trigger flooding and other disasters.
He was accompanied by Meteorological Communications Expert Hanna Kimani and Siaya County Director of Meteorology Dominic Arodi.
Muga urged county governments, particularly departments responsible for agriculture, water, disaster management and public health, to begin putting in place contingency measures ahead of the expected rains.
“We want county governments and their departments, including agriculture and water, to prepare adequately for any disasters that may occur. In flood-prone areas, communities and county governments should establish measures that will help protect lives and property before disaster strikes,” he said.
He added that the department’s priority is to ensure communities receive timely and actionable weather information that enables them to make informed decisions.
The forecasts, he said, will also target farmers, fishermen and residents living in flood-prone and other high-risk areas to enable them to minimise losses.
“Our goal is to shift from reactive disaster response to proactive risk management through timely climate information,” Muga said.
He further called for stronger collaboration among government agencies, development partners and other stakeholders to ensure climate information is integrated into planning and decision-making.
“When all stakeholders plan using climate information, we become more effective, efficient and better prepared to deal with weather-related emergencies,” he said.
Kenya continues to face increasing threats from climate change, with recurring floods, droughts, landslides and extreme weather events affecting livelihoods and damaging infrastructure.
According to Muga, improved weather forecasting and climate services are critical in addressing food insecurity and building resilience among vulnerable communities.
“We must become more data-driven and ensure timely access to weather forecasts and long-term climate information,” he said.
Kimani said there was a growing need to embrace impact-based and action-oriented weather forecasting because climate variability and climate change continue to pose significant risks.
“Climate change is real and is here to stay. We need to focus on forecasts that not only predict the weather but also guide people on the actions they should take,” she said.
She noted that flooding remains the leading climate-related hazard in Siaya County, alongside strong winds, lightning, thunderstorms and prolonged drought.
“We have documented floods as the major hazard in Siaya. Storms, strong winds, lightning, thunderstorms and droughts also continue to cause significant destruction. We have already mapped flood hotspots to support preparedness and response efforts,” Kimani said.
Kenya has in recent years experienced devastating floods linked to heavy rainfall, resulting in loss of lives, displacement of families and destruction of roads, bridges, schools and other infrastructure.
In 2024, flooding claimed at least 210 lives, injured 125 people, left 90 others missing and displaced more than 165,500 people, according to the Ministry of Interior and National Administration.
At the height of the floods, the government ordered mandatory evacuations for residents living near 178 dams and water reservoirs across 33 counties and urged the public to remain vigilant.
Meteorologists say the El Niño phenomenon, a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to warmer ocean temperatures, often increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall in East Africa while causing drought conditions in other parts of the world.
