Sometime last week, Kenyans went to bed not only early but also terrified as the intensity of the unexpected rainfall being witnessed in some parts of the country, went a notch higher.
A devastating lightening followed by heavy thunderstorm cracked through large sections of Nairobi and parts of Kiambu in succession sending many to their knees for prayer. It caused instant power outage in most of the affected areas.
The unexpected stormy torrent forced many businesses, especially grocery stalls and food outlets – that usually close late – to end their activities prematurely. Most of them cash in on late buyers, coming back to their residential places from work.
“I thought this was the end of the world,” Esther Akinyi who was reluctantly closing down her fish frying business along Savannah Road in Donholm narrated the following day. She was visibly terrified, almost 24 hours later. The incident took place on Tuesday evening.
“I found myself on my knees asking God to save me from death so that I can see my children alive before going to bed as they had closed school for mid-term break,” Anyango said.
A number of revellers in various entertainment spots, who were looking forward to watch European Champions League football fixtures that night were also forced to find their way back to their respective houses. Everyone wanted to be where they can feel safe, at least even if the rains were still pounding heavily outside.
Whereas, to many, almost all human kind, rain is a blessing, the current one is described as a mistimed situation. January and February are usually dry months, and generally there are concerns over this change of weather.
However, local climate scientists have responded to these concerns, giving a clear picture of the current weather situation, which was already projected.
“The rains that we are receiving in February are off-season, mostly attributed to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),” Dr. Jemima Gacheru, a weather scientist at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) told The People Tribune. The MJO, she explained, is a band of rain-bearing clouds that moves around the Earth along the equator, and when they are over an area, as it has been over Kenya for the past two or so weeks, they bring rain.
On February 6, when releasing the weather forecast for the long rain season, March-April-May (MAM), KMD projected that the onset of the long rain season may kick off towards the end of this month in certain key areas.
It forecasted that in those areas, traditional to fair rainfall performance, the onset will be in February, across the MAM long rain season, and only experience cessation in June.
“Distribution is expected to be fair to good,” acting KMD director, Dr. Edward Muriuki said then, identifying the areas as the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley, comprising Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Kakamega, and Vihiga.
Others are Bomet, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Kisumu, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Narok and Western Laikipia.
During the season, he revealed that several areas are likely to experience a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, with the season expected to be characterised by a normal to late onset, with intermittent dry spells.
“However, scattered heavy rainfall events are likely to occur in some parts of the country, with the peak expected to occur in April over most regions, except for the Coast, where the peak is expected in May,” announced Dr. Muriuki.
While responding on the current rains, Dr. Gacheru said they are likely to continue up to the second week of March, moreso, again in Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Highlands and some parts of South-eastern Kenya.
“However, the intensity of the rains may reduce during the second week of March,” she noted.
But around this period to the third week of March , the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi
County, which involves Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Nairobi and Eastern Laikipia, will experience the onset of rains.
According to the weatherman, who has described the rains as fair to good, the intensity of the downpour is expected to reduce in these areas towards the end of the third to fourth week of May.
KMD says weather information, including daily, weekly and monthly forecasts is available, and calls on Kenyans to access this at various levels, from national to the ward levels through its officers stationed in every county. This information has also been translated into Kiswahili, and efforts are being made to even localise it to the village level.
“Farmers can be advised by the agricultural officers in their areas on whether or not to plant,” Dr. Gacheru responded when asked whether farmers should go about their activities uninterrupted.
However, she said that the rainfall onset criteria that is the receipt of at least 20 mm of rainfall within 3 consecutive days, with no dry spell exceeding 7 days thereafter, has already been met in Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Highlands, South-eastern Kenya and the South Coast.
And while the ongoing rains are not part of the March-April-May season since climatologically, it begins in March for most parts of the country, Dr. Gacheru saud they are expected to continue into March and therefore have an impact on key sectors like agriculture.
“So, what was experienced on Tuesday evening was a convective storm,” she said, explaining that these types of storms are often characterised by heavy rain, thunder and lightning, strong winds and sometimes hail.
Ahead of the MAM 2026, and in view of the current weather situation, the Kenya Red Cross Services (KRCS), is calling for continued investment in climate services that translate forecasts into action.
“Stronger collaboration between meteorological institutions, government, humanitarian actors, and communities is equally as important as scaling up anticipatory action financing to reach more counties before shocks occur,” the organisation said in a statement.
It also calls on the relevant authorities to ensure that climate information is accessible, actionable, and inclusive, especially for women, pastoralists, and marginalized groups.
