Kenya could spend US$1.32 billion importing fuel for light-duty vehicles by 2040 if measures are not taken to improve vehicle efficiency, raising concerns over the country’s growing exposure to international oil price shocks.
The projected increase from US$783 million in 2025 has renewed calls for Vehicle Efficiency Regulations (VER) to ensure vehicles entering the Kenyan market consume less fuel, even as the country accelerates its transition to electric mobility.
Hezbon Mose, President Electric Mobility Association of Kenya (EMAK) says improving vehicle efficiency is not just an environmental concern but an economic necessity for a country that relies heavily on imported petroleum.
“Kenya’s transport sector consumes approximately 75 per cent of all petroleum products used in the country, meaning fluctuations in global oil prices have significant implications for household expenses, businesses and the country’s foreign exchange reserves,” he says.
According to him, Kenya cannot control global oil prices, but it can reduce its vulnerability and improve its balance of trade. Large and inefficient fleet of light-duty vehicles is magnifying the economic impact of every increase in international fuel prices.
Vehicle Efficiency Regulations are increasingly being adopted internationally as a way of addressing this challenge. According to Moses, 13 jurisdictions have introduced efficiency regulations for light-duty vehicles, collectively covering approximately 85 per cent of the global light-duty vehicle market.
These include Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States.
“The proposed regulations would gradually improve the average fuel efficiency of vehicles entering Kenya, reducing the amount of petroleum consumed without necessarily requiring motorists to abandon conventional vehicles,” he said.
Mose emphasized that the regulations should not be interpreted as a ban on petrol and diesel-powered vehicles or a requirement for all motorists to switch to electric cars.
Instead, they would establish standards that encourage the importation of vehicles that use less fuel, giving consumers more efficient options while reducing the country’s overall petroleum demand.
“Kenya could draw lessons from countries that have successfully introduced similar regulations, particularly those that depend heavily on imported vehicles.”
The push for vehicle efficiency comes as Kenya makes progress in electric mobility. According to Moses, electric vehicle registrations have grown from 2,695 in 2023 to more than 55,000 by November 2026.
The growth is attributed to government incentives, favourable electricity tariffs and increased private sector investment. The introduction of a special electricity tariff for electric mobility by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), alongside tax incentives for selected electric vehicle categories, has helped improve the economics of adopting electric transport.
“Electric motorcycle riders, for instance, can save between Sh300 and Sh500 daily compared with their petrol-powered counterparts, while operators of electric public service vehicles are also benefiting from lower operating costs,” he added.
However, motorcycles account for approximately 95 per cent of the 33,800 electric vehicles registered by the end of 2025, highlighting the need to expand adoption to passenger cars, buses and commercial vehicles.
Mose said the next phase of Kenya’s electric mobility transition should focus on making electric vehicles more affordable and attracting investment in local assembly and charging infrastructure.
In the short term, he said, Kenya should facilitate the importation of both new and used electric vehicles to increase availability, improve affordability and accelerate adoption as domestic supply develops.
In the medium term, stable fiscal and regulatory policies would be necessary to give investors confidence to establish electric vehicle assembly plants and charging infrastructure.
In the longer term, Kenya has an opportunity to reduce reliance on imported vehicles by expanding domestic assembly, increasing local value addition and building regional manufacturing competitiveness.
Mose said these measures could position Kenya as a leading electric mobility market in Africa while creating opportunities for local industries.
The country has already attracted more than US$200 million in investment into electric mobility companies, according to EMAK, while more than 1,500 charging points and battery-swapping stations have been established.
The association estimates that the 33,800 electric vehicles registered by the end of 2025 helped the country avoid approximately Sh2.6 billion in foreign exchange expenditure on fuel imports.
